enzh-CNfrdeeliwitjakorues
El Niño & Climate-related Links

 

 

 

 

  

The graphic below is a reproduction from an article in which researchers at SIO are corroborating these predictions with observations. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

El Niño is an abnormal warming phase in the Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), while the abnormal cooling is known as La Niña - these shifts are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO.  The current ENSO phase is often quantized by a deviation from normally observed SST using the Oceanic Niño Index or ONI. While El Niño and its counterpart cooling phase La Niña are still being researched, the seasonal effects are becoming well understood with long term data sets.

Using the table below from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in conjunction with the CalCOFI database - can offer information on how the environment has reacted in response to the different phases and intensities of the ENSO. 

The description and chart below are reproductions courtesy of NOAA Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and Cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2017 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1          

2016

2.2

2.0

1.6

1.1

0.6

0.1

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.7 

2015

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.7

2.0

2.2

2.3

2014

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

2013

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

2012

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.2

-0.2

2011

-1.3

-1.1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

-0.9

-0.9

-0.8

2010

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.5

0.0

-0.4

-0.8

-1.1

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

2009

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.3

2008

-1.4

-1.3

-1.1

-0.9

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

2007

0.7

0.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-1.1

-1.2

-1.3

2006

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.0

2005

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

-0.7

2004

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

2003

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

2002

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.1

2001

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

2000

-1.6

-1.4

-1.1

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

1999

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-1.4

-1.6

1998

2.1

1.8

1.4

1.0

0.5

-0.1

-0.7

-1.0

-1.2

-1.2

-1.3

-1.4

1997

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.1

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.7

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.3

1996

-0.9

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

1995

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-0.9

-1.0

-0.9

1994

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.9

1.0

1993

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

1992

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

1991

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

1.2

1.4

1990

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

1989

-1.6

-1.4

-1.1

-0.9

-0.6

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

1988

0.8

0.5

0.1

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

-1.2

-1.1

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-1.8

1987

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.1

1986

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1985

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

1984

-0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.9

-1.1

1983

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.0

0.7

0.3

0.0

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

1982

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.1

1981

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

1980

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

1979

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.6

1978

0.7

0.4

0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

1977

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.8

1976

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

1975

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-1.0

-1.1

-1.3

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

1974

-1.7

-1.5

-1.2

-1.0

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.7

-0.6

1973

1.7

1.2

0.6

0.0

-0.4

-0.8

-1.0

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-1.9

-1.9

1972

-0.7

-0.4

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.0

1.9

1971

-1.3

-1.3

-1.1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.9

-0.8

1970

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.1

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.9

-1.2

1969

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

1968

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.1

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.8

1967

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

1966

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

1965

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.4

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.5

1964

1.0

0.6

0.1

-0.3

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

1963

-0.4

-0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1962

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

1961

0.0

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

1960

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

1959

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

1958

1.7

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

1957

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.6

1956

-0.9

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

1955

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-1.0

-1.4

-1.6

-1.4

1954

0.7

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

1953

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

1952

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

1951

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.6

1950

-1.4

-1.2

-1.1

-1.2

-1.1

-0.9

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

 

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